Sunday, February 26, 2017

Oscars 2017 Predictions



It's the Oscars again, so it's time for me, like any movie enthusiast, to post our predictions for who will take home the coveted statues for being the best in their fields.  I found this year to be harder than ever to pick some of the winners because there is so much diversity in each category and some really strong candidates.  Also, movies are so much more emotional than other things.  For example, in football, there is a lot of statistical analysis you can do before a match-up.  Who is injured? Who's got the better record?  Who's got a stronger defense?  Who plays better on the road?  And so on.  You can make a much more informed decision and be pretty accurate in your predictions if you do your research.  Nothing is ever guaranteed, but you can get a high percentage of your predictions correct if you do some digging.  That's not the case with movies.  For Best Picture, Arrival was a sci-fi alien drama.  Fences was a filmed production of August Wilson's Pullitzer Prize winning play about African American life in the 1950's.  Hacksaw Ridge was a World War II movie.  Hell or High Water was about bank robberies as revenge for the banks foreclosing on their land.  Hidden Figures was about a group of African American geniuses who helped NASA propel man into space in the 1950s.  La La Land was a modern musical with a throw-back feel.  Lion was about an orphaned Indian boy who used Google to track down his parents as an adult.  Manchester by the Sea was a drama about a troubled uncle taking guardianship of his nephew.  And Moonlight was about broken families, parental figures, drug abuse and sexual identity.  So how do you possibly say that one is better than another when they are all so completely different?  Well, I, like so many others, to try to predict how the Academy will vote.

BEST PICTURE:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Isabelle Hupert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopoia

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

COSTUME DESIGN:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

DIRECTING:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE):
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America
13th

FILM EDITING:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE):
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG):
"Audition" La La Land
"Can't Stop the Feeling" Trolls
"City of Stars" La La Land
"The Empty Chair" Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I'll Go" Moana

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider & Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

SOUND EDITING:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

VISUAL EFFECTS:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY):
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

Well, there you have it.  My 2017 Oscar Predictions.  Am I right?  We shall see.

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