Oscars 2017 Predictions

It's the Oscars again, so it's time for me, like any movie enthusiast, to post our predictions for who will take home the coveted statues for being the best in their fields.  I found this year to be harder than ever to pick some of the winners because there is so much diversity in each category and some really strong candidates.  Also, movies are so much more emotional than other things.  For example, in football, there is a lot of statistical analysis you can do before a match-up.  Who is injured? Who's got the better record?  Who's got a stronger defense?  Who plays better on the road?  And so on.  You can make a much more informed decision and be pretty accurate in your predictions if you do your research.  Nothing is ever guaranteed, but you can get a high percentage of your predictions correct if you do some digging.  That's not the case with movies.  For Best Picture, Arrival was a sci-fi alien drama.  Fences was a filmed production of August Wilson's Pullitzer Prize winning play about African American life in the 1950's.  Hacksaw Ridge was a World War II movie.  Hell or High Water was about bank robberies as revenge for the banks foreclosing on their land.  Hidden Figures was about a group of African American geniuses who helped NASA propel man into space in the 1950s.  La La Land was a modern musical with a throw-back feel.  Lion was about an orphaned Indian boy who used Google to track down his parents as an adult.  Manchester by the Sea was a drama about a troubled uncle taking guardianship of his nephew.  And Moonlight was about broken families, parental figures, drug abuse and sexual identity.  So how do you possibly say that one is better than another when they are all so completely different?  Well, I, like so many others, to try to predict how the Academy will vote.

BEST PICTURE:

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Isabelle Hupert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopoia

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

COSTUME DESIGN:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

DIRECTING:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE):
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America
13th

FILM EDITING:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE):
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG):
"Audition" La La Land
"Can't Stop the Feeling" Trolls
"City of Stars" La La Land
"The Empty Chair" Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I'll Go" Moana

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider & Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

SOUND EDITING:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

VISUAL EFFECTS:

Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY):
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

Well, there you have it.  My 2017 Oscar Predictions.  Am I right?  We shall see.

Manchester by the Sea Review

3.0 Stars

 

Manchester by the Sea is the story of Lee Chandler (Casey Affleck), a janitor for residential buildings in Quincy, Massachusetts. He grew up in Manchester with his brother, but left after a tragic incident forced him away and turned him into an angry, antisocial loner.  He is called back to Manchester when his brother Joe (Kyle Chandler) dies from a heart condition.  Unexpectedly, Lee is named the legal guardian to his 16 year old nephew Patrick (Lucas Hedges) and also the trustee of Joe's estate until Patrick comes of age.  Lee is left with no other choice than to return to Manchester full time to fulfill his obligations and must face again the incident that prompted his leaving years before.

Manchester by the Sea is nominated for 6 Academy Awards including Best Picture, Best Director (Kenneth Lonergan), Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Best Supporting Actress (Michelle Williams) and Best Supporting Actor (Lucas Hedges).  Affleck won the Golden Globe for Best Actor, but the film lost to Moonlight for Best Drama.  

We've seen movies like this before where someone who isn't ready is thrust into taking care of another child's life and it completely turns their world upside down, though ultimately proving to be the best thing that ever happened to them.  Catherine Zeta-Jones did this in No Reservations.  Katherine Heigl and Josh Duhamel did it in Life as We Know It.  Jean Reno did it in The Professional.  And we all know that some kind of tragedy happened to their biological parents to end up in this situation.  It's no different in Manchester by the Sea as we already know Lee's brother Joe died from his heart condition.  What sets this film apart is the mysterious incident that drove Lee from Manchester in the first place.  I won't give away the tragedy, but it's something the town, Lee's wife, and especially Lee blame on Lee for happening.  When his brother's dead forces him back to Manchester, Lee is confronted by the tragedy once again and is overcome by the conflict of his desire to flee once again versus his obligation to his brother's wishes to care for Patrick and his property.   

 

From the preview, it appeared that the writing and performances looked marvelously beautiful, compelling and tragic.  However, I felt the movie dragged for most of it and I was confused and disoriented by some of the musical selections that seemed disjointed.  The end was rather abrupt without a real resolution to anything.  Though La La Land cleaned up at the Golden Globes, the buzz for Best Picture and Best Actor seem to be pointing in large numbers to Manchester by the Sea.  I don't see this taking La La Land down for best picture.  I also don't see Michelle Williams taking home the trophy for Best Supporting Actress.  She had one good scene where she attempts to apologize to Lee that lasted a few minutes.  Other than that, he performance was nothing memorable.  She didn't give a poor performance, that was just the character's role as it was written.  

 

I gave it a 4.0 Star prediction based on several factors: the riveting preview, the wins and nominations, and previous performances by Affleck and Williams.  I'm reducing that rating to 3.0 Stars.  I'm glad I rented it rather than spent the full money in the theatres.  I doubt I'd watch it again and it won't be making it to my home collection.  I can see Casey Affleck taking home the honors for Best Actor, and Manchester by the Sea might be a strong contender for Best Original Screenplay.  Other than that, rent it if you're in the mood for a dragging drama.  So, what movie will be on my mind next?  We shall see.

 

Manchester By the Sea Preview

Manchester by the Sea is the story of Lee Chandler (Casey Affleck), a janitor for residential buildings in Quincy, Massachusetts. He grew up in Manchester with his brother, but left after a tragic incident forced him away and turned him into an angry, antisocial loner.  He is called back to Manchester when his brother Joe (Kyle Chandler) dies from a heart condition.  Unexpectedly, Lee is named the legal guardian to his 16 year old nephew Patrick (Lucas Hedges) and also the trustee of Joe's estate until Patrick comes of age.  Lee is left with no other choice than to return to Manchester full time to fulfill his obligations and must face again the incident that prompted his leaving years before.

Manchester by the Sea is nominated for 6 Academy Awards including Best Picture, Best Director (Kenneth Lonergan), Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Best Supporting Actress (Michelle Williams) and Best Supporting Actor (Lucas Hedges).  Affleck won the Golden Globe for Best Actor, but the film lost to Moonlight for Best Drama.  

If the movie is anything like the preview, Manchester by the Sea is absolutely worth every nomination is has received.  We've seen movies like this before where someone who isn't ready is thrust into taking care of another child's life and it completely turns their world upside down, though ultimately proving to be the best thing that ever happened to them.  Catherine Zeta-Jones did this in No Reservations.  Katherine Heigl and Josh Duhamel did it in Life as We Know It.  Jean Reno did it in The Professional.  And we all know that some kind of tragedy happened to their biological parents to end up in this situation.  It's no different in Manchester by the Sea as we already know Lee's brother Joe died from his heart condition.  What seems to set this film apart is the mysterious incident that drove Lee from Manchester in the first place.  It's mentioned in the preview, though it's completely unclear what happened.  What is apparent, however, is that the writing and performances look marvelously beautiful, compelling and tragic.

Though La La Land cleaned up at the Golden Globes, the buzz for Best Picture and Best Actor seem to be pointing in large numbers to Manchester by the Sea.  If the film lives up to the preview, it won't be hard to see why.  I'm giving it a 4.0 Star prediction based on several factors: the riveting preview, the wins and nominations, and previous performances by Affleck and Williams.  I think this will be well worth the money spent in theatres and a contender to find a permanent home in my personal collection.  So, am I right?  We shall see.

Hacksaw Ridge Review

4.0 Stars

Hacksaw Ridge is the story of an Army Medic Desmond Doss (Andrew Garfield) who was the first to ever receive the Medal of Honor for bravery without having fired a single shot.  His father Tom (Hugo Weaving) fought in World War I and it took its toll on Tom who turned to drinking and was often violent with his family.  It was his father's violence that prompted Desmond to commit to the Scripture's command that "Thou shalt not kill."  He refused to even pick up a gun.  Things got even tougher for Tom when both of his sons enlisted in the army after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor launching the United States into World War II.

Desmond did not get along with his superiors in boot camp due to his opposition to guns and killing.  Refusing to train on Saturdays as it is the Sabbath, didn't earn him any popularity points with his fellow trainees either.  Sergeant Howell (Vince Vaughn) made his training as hellish as possible and Desmond was beaten in his barracks by the other soldiers who viewed his conscientious objections as cowardice.  But Desmond did not give up their names when asked who attacked him.  He took everything they threw at him and persevered.  The day the squad was released from training, Desmond was arrested for his insubordination making him miss his own wedding day.  Only the testimony of his father saved him from a court martial.

Desmond's stand against killing continued in Okinawa, Japan as he refused to take up a weapon against the enemy, even though he believed their cause was just.  Instead, he regularly risked his own life, unarmed, to aid his wounded brothers away from the front lines to get medical attention.  In all, Desmond rescued over 75 men without ever firing a shot.

Hacksaw Ridge marks Mel Gibson's return to the Director's chair after a ten year hiatus after Apocalypto in 2006 and The Passion of the Christ in 2004.  Hacksaw Ridge has been nominated for 6 Oscars including Best Picture of the Year, Best Leading Actor (Andrew Garfield) and Best Director (Mel Gibson).  Gibson 2 for 2 in Oscar wins, both for Braveheart in 1996 that earned him the Best Picture of the Year and Best Director.  Hacksaw Ridge is another installment in brutally graphic, tragically realistic, touching and character-driven movies in Gibson's repertoire.  I was concerned about Andrew Garfield in this role.  He started gaining major recognition with his role in The Social Network in 2010 followed by a reprized role as Peter Parker / Spider-man in two Spider-man movies.  But this is quite a different role for Garfield and he more than rose to the occasion.  In fact, his performance earned him a Golden Globe nomination (Casey Affleck won for Best Actor in a Drama) and an Oscar nomination.

I was also concerned about Vince Vaughn in this very heavy movie.  I love him in his comedies, but he failed to impress in the second season of True Detective.  Granted, everyone failed to impress in that series follow-up, but particularly Vaughn who wasn't very convincing in his dramatic role.  While he was more than adequate in this role, he still proved to be the dimmest star shining in a sea of brightly burning suns. Vaughn will never be mentioned alongside the greats like R Lee Ermey in Full Metal Jacket, Louis Gosset Jr. in An Officer and a Gentleman, or Christopher Walken in Biloxi Blues. 

That being said, early comments on the film, the notoriety of Gibson's previous works and the preview made me very optimistic for Hacksaw Ridge, so I gave it an anticipatory 4.0 Star Prediction.  And I'm going to stick with it giving it a solid 4.0 Stars.  It really had everything.  It started with a tragic family story torn apart by alcohol and violence.  It had a beautiful love story that was so pure and sweet.  It made you love and support Desmond in boot camp and feel for him as his fellow soldiers attacked him.  It ended with a brutal, graphic, realistic war reenactment.  That is one of Gibson's specialties: graphic violence that isn't just for the sake of being bloody, but rather because that's what actually happened.  And that's how you look at it.  You don't ask, "Why did that movie have to be so violent?"  Instead, you realize just how violent the war was and that makes Desmond's heroics just that much more incredible. Hacksaw Ridge was well worth the money in the theatre, definitely worth the 6 nominations, and a contender for a spot in my home collection.  So, what movie will be on my mind next?  We shall see. 

Hacksaw Ridge Preview

Hacksaw Ridge is the story of an Army Medic Desmond Doss (Andrew Garfield) who was the first to ever receive the Medal of Honor for bravery without having fired a single shot.  His father Tom (Hugo Weaving) fought in World War I and raised his sons Desmond and Hal to be seekers of peace and to never raise a weapon.  The War took its toll on Tom who turned to drinking and was often violent with his family.  Things got even tougher for Tom when both of his sons enlisted in the army after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor launching the United States into World War II.

Desmond did not get along with his superiors in training due to his opposition to guns and killing.  Refusing to train on Saturdays as it is the Sabbath, didn't earn him any popularity points with his fellow trainees.  Sergeant Howell (Vince Vaughn) makes his training as hellish as possible and he is beaten in his barracks by the other soldiers who view his conscientious objections as cowardice.  But Desmond did not give up their names when asked who attacked him.  He took everything they threw at him and persevered.  The day the squad was released from training, Desmond was arrested for his insubordination making him miss his own wedding day.  Only the testimony of his father saved him from a court martial.

Desmond's stand against the war continued in Okinawa, Japan as he refused to take up a weapon against the enemy, even though he believed their cause was just.  Instead, he regularly risked his own life, unarmed, to aid his wounded brothers away from the front lines to get medical attention.  In all, Desmond rescued over 75 men without ever firing a shot.

Hacksaw Ridge marks Mel Gibson's return to the Director's chair after a ten year hiatus after Apocalypto in 2006 and The Passion of the Christ in 2004.  Hacksaw Ridge has been nominated for 6 Oscars including Best Picture of the Year, Best Leading Actor (Andrew Garfield) and Best Director (Mel Gibson).  Gibson 2 for 2 in Oscar wins, both for Braveheart in 1996 that earned him the Best Picture of the Year and Best Director.  Hacksaw Ridge looks like yet another installment in brutally graphic, tragically realistic, touching and character-driven movies in Gibson's repertoire.  I was concerned about Andrew Garfield in this role.  He started gaining major recognition with his role in The Social Network in 2010 followed by a reprized role as Peter Parker / Spider-man in two Spider-man movies.  But this is quite a different role for Garfield.  Most of my trepidation subsided by watching the preview.  I was also more than just a little unsure about Shia LaBeouf in Man Down, but he absolutely slayed that performance in my opinion.  Rotten Tomatoes, Roger Ebert, and pretty much everyone else who's opinion matters saw it differently, so I could also be wrong about this role for Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge.  Though he seems to be getting a much warmer reception.  I'm also concerned about Vince Vaughn in this very heavy movie.  I love him in his comedies, but he failed to impress in the second season of True Detective.  Granted, everyone failed to impress in that series follow-up, but particularly Vaughn who wasn't very convincing in his dramatic role.

That being said, early comments on the film, the notoriety of Gibson's work and the preview make me very optimistic for Hacksaw Ridge, so I'm giving it an anticipatory 4.0 Star Prediction.  I think it will be well worth the money in the theatre, hopefully worth the 6 nominations, and a contender for a spot in my home collection.  Am I right?  We shall see.

Fences Review

3.0 Stars

 

Every boy and girls has dreams of what they'd like to be when they grow up: an astronaut, a ball player, a ballerina, a princess.  Fences is the story of Troy Maxson (Denzel Washington) who had a dream to play baseball.  Growing up in the early 1900's, that dream was impossible for him as African Americans weren't allowed to play professional baseball until Jackie Robinson broke through that racial wall in 1947.  By that time, the league deemed Maxson too old to play and he continued his career as a sanitation worker in Pittsburgh to provide for his family.  He tried to be the good husband and father, but the pain of missed opportunity grew to resentment and anger over the years putting a strain on his family.

Troy's wife, Rose (Viola Davis) tells him that their son, Cory (Jovan Adepo) is being looked at by a college recruiter to play football.  Troy is set against it.  Being a talented baseball player never got him anything.  Tensions grow so deep in their family, Cory actually confronts his father asking why he never liked him.  Troy's response is "What law says I have to like you?"  His job is to put food on the table and a roof over their heads.  He advises Cory that he can't go through life worrying about if anybody likes him. And that's just one of many problems facing the Maxsons.  Troy's other son is a struggling musician who stops by regularly for money.  Troy's brother suffered a major head injury while in the military. Troy is summoned to meet with union representatives after questioning his boss why only white men get to drive the sanitation trucks.  And Troy is also dealing with other demons finding solace at another woman's home. 

Fences has been nominated for 4 Academy Awards: Best Picture, Best Leading Actor (Denzel Washington), Best Leading Actress (Viola Davis) and Best Adapted Screenplay (August Wilson).  August Wilson was an American playwright who wrote a series of ten plays called The Pittsburgh Cycle.  He won two Pullitzer Prizes for drama.  Fences earned him one of those.  Wilson was always revered for his portrayal of African Americans with humor, drama, and real brutal honesty.  Washington and Davis brought every ounce of emotion from his writing and from the era to life in a film that is a slow, methodical, character-driven realistic tragedy of American Pittsburgh in the 1950's.  

I gave what looked like a beautifully and sincerely acted drama a 4 Star Prediction.  At this point, I need to remind you of what my rating scale means.  5 Stars does not necessarily mean a movie is Oscar-worthy.  It's more about my own personal preferences and the likelihood of my owning said movie and watching it repeatedly.  By the same token 3 or 4 stars does not mean I hated the movie.  In fact, I can see a movie and agree with it being nominated or even winning awards and still only give it 3 stars if seeing it once is enough for me.  With that in mind, I'm giving Fences 3 Stars.  Directed by and starring Denzel Washington, the August Wilson play was literally brought directly from the stage to the big screen.  It had the same feeling as watching Oklahoma or Glengarry Glen Ross or Six Degrees of Separation.  That's not a bad thing, but it felt very much like watching a Broadway production on a movie screen rather than a screenplay that was adapted for a motion picture.  And Washington and Davis gave performances that would surely earn either of them a Tony Award Nomination.  Though I don't disagree with their nominations for Oscars, I don't see either of them winning for their roles, nor do I see Fences taking home the trophy for Best Picture of the year.  It was real, beautiful, smart, funny, tragic and wonderful; but for me, once was enough.  If this was a stage performance making a tour like Wicked or Phantom of the Opera, I could see wanting to catch it again the next time it's in town.  Being a major motion picture, though, I doubt I'll be watching it again and I'm sure I won't be owning Fences.  So, what movie will be on my mind next?  We shall see.